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BJP’s Projected Victory:
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to end its 27-year drought in Delhi and secure a victory in the 2025 assembly elections. Most exit polls predict the BJP winning between 39-60 seats out of the 70-member assembly, making it the largest party.
AAP’s Decline:
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), currently in power, is projected to see a significant drop in its seat count. The exit polls predict the party to secure between 10-37 seats, a significant decline from its 62-seat win in 2020.
Congress to Face Another Rout:
Congress is predicted to struggle once again, with most exit polls projecting the party to win zero or only 1-2 seats. This mirrors its performance in the 2015 and 2020 elections, where it failed to win any seats.
Survey Variability:
While most exit polls predict a decisive win for the BJP, there is one notable survey, WeePreside, which gives the AAP an edge, projecting the party to win 46-52 seats. However, this survey stands out from the majority of polls.
Poll of Polls:
The "Poll of Polls" average, compiled from all exit surveys, projects the BJP winning 39 seats, which is above the halfway mark of 36. The AAP is projected to win 30 seats, while Congress is expected to secure zero to one seat.
Historical Context:
The AAP has been dominant in Delhi elections, securing a majority in 2015 and 2020. Despite the BJP's dominance in Lok Sabha elections in Delhi since 2014, the party has struggled to convert this success into an assembly win.
Voter Turnout:
The voter turnout in the 2025 elections stood at 57.7% till 5 pm, signaling moderate participation. The polls were contested mainly between the ruling AAP, the BJP, and Congress.
Delhi's Political History:
Delhi witnessed a major political shift in 2015 when the AAP swept to power. The BJP has not been able to replicate its success in Delhi's assembly elections since 1998, despite securing victories in the Lok Sabha elections.
Table: Exit Poll Projections
Source
BJP Seats
AAP Seats
Congress Seats
People's Pulse
51-60
10-19
0
Poll Diary
42-50
18-25
0-2
JVC
39-45
22-31
0-1
Matrize
35-40
32-37
0-1
P-Marq
39-49
21-31
0-1
People's Insight
40-44
25-29
0-2
Mind Brink
44-49
21-25
0-1
WeePreside
18-23
46-52
0-2
Chanakya Strategies
39-44
25-28
2-3
DV Research
36-44
26-34
0
Poll of Polls
39
30
0-1
This table summarizes the seat predictions for BJP, AAP, and Congress as per various exit polls. The Poll of Polls column represents the average of all surveys, with the BJP winning 39 seats and AAP securing 30 seats, while Congress remains at the bottom with 0-1 seats.
