Rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have launched a major offensive against the Syrian government, pushing closer to Homs after capturing Aleppo and Hama in a swift military campaign. The rebels, aiming to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, are now just five kilometers from Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, which would sever the crucial connection between the capital, Damascus, and the Assad regime’s stronghold on the Mediterranean coast. This would represent a major shift in the balance of power in the ongoing Syrian civil war.

The offensive, which began on November 27, has been spearheaded by HTS, an Islamist faction originally tied to Al-Qaeda, although they have distanced themselves from their extremist past in recent years. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani stated that the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of Assad’s rule. As the rebel forces gain ground, tens of thousands of Alawites, Assad’s religious minority, have fled Homs in fear of the advancing rebels. The United Nations has warned that the conflict could displace as many as 1.5 million people, deepening the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

The rebels’ gains have dealt heavy blows to the Assad government, especially with the fall of Hama. Residents of the city celebrated the rebel capture, burning posters of President Assad. Despite claims by the Syrian army that their retreat from Hama was a temporary tactical withdrawal, experts believe losing Homs would mark the collapse of Assad’s grip on power. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has described the escalation in Syria as a result of a "chronic collective failure" in diplomacy, as violence and instability continue to escalate across the country.